CoStar Raises Near-Term U.S. Retail Forecast
Key Highlights
- ➤National retail vacancy forecast 4.26% year-end, down from 4.32% in Q3
- ➤Asking rents projected at $26.36 per square foot year-end
- ➤Asking rents forecast to reach $27.12 per square foot by end-2027
- ➤2027 net absorption projected roughly 15 million square feet below 16.8 million deliveries
Expert Statements
Brandon Svec, National director of retail analytics at CoStar Group
“Compared with the prior forecast, the near-term vacancy outlook has strengthened as second-half demand outperformed earlier expectations.”
Brandon Svec, National director of retail analytics at CoStar Group
“Demand is expected to cool in 2027, however, as annual net absorption is projected to fall roughly 15 million square feet, which would trail 16.8 million square feet of anticipated deliveries.”
Brandon Svec, National director of retail analytics at CoStar Group
“Limited availability continues to support pricing, even as slower near-term demand and a gradual slowing in retail sales growth moderate the pace of acceleration.”
Brandon Svec, National director of retail analytics at CoStar Group
“The forecast carries risks on both sides, though the balance remains tilted to the downside.”
Brandon Svec, National director of retail analytics at CoStar Group
“Higher energy prices and inflation could further erode the cushion for consumers while pressuring retailer margins, while an even-higher-for-longer interest rate environment could weigh on business formation, retailer expansion and development activity.”
Brandon Svec, National director of retail analytics at CoStar Group
“These risks, however, should be viewed against a retail market that remains fundamentally tight, with low vacancy and limited new construction providing a meaningful buffer against a softer economic environment.”
U.S. retail projections are expected to improve in the near-term, according to a revised forecast from CoStar , a leading global provider of online real estate marketplaces, information and analytics in the property markets.
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