J.P. Morgan Releases 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Projecting 7.0% Return for 60/40 Portfolio Over 10-15 Years
Key Highlights
- ➤60/40 portfolio forecast rises to 7.0% annually over the next 10–15 years
- ➤30% alternatives allocation lifts projected returns to 7.5% and Sharpe ratio 21%
- ➤U.S. large cap equity forecast increases 80bps to 7.5%
- ➤Global aggregate bond forecast reaches 5.3%, highest in two decades
- ➤Diversified hedge fund forecast jumps 140bps to 6.7% on higher alpha estimates
Expert Statements
John Bilton, Global Head of Strategic Research for Multi-Asset Solutions, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
“Our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions help investors navigate markets reshaped by economic nationalism, accelerating technology, and the rewiring of capital flows”
John Bilton, Global Head of Strategic Research for Multi-Asset Solutions, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
“This year's outlook sees stronger long-term growth and renewed opportunities to build resilient portfolios through diversification, combining higher global bond yields with alternatives and real assets for differentiated returns and inflation resilience.”
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
“The global economy is entering a powerful investment cycle, with AI adoption and rising productivity supporting a stronger growth outlook,”
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
“At the same time, demographic headwinds, large government deficits, and a more complex geopolitical backdrop suggest inflation will remain more volatile over our forecast horizon.”
Grace Peters, Global Co-Head of Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
“Every year the LTCMAs give us the foundation for building client portfolios, and this year that has never mattered more. Return matters, but it is no longer the whole story,”
Grace Peters, Global Co-Head of Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
“In today's environment, optimizing risk and return together is the imperative, and with dispersion wider than it has been in years, investors anchored to a disciplined strategic asset allocation will find this a more compelling environment than the headlines suggest.”
J.P. Morgan Releases 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Projecting 7.0% Return for 60/40 Portfolio Over 10-15 Years PR Newswire
Greater artificial intelligence (AI)-driven productivity, higher corporate profits and bond yields drives long-term growth outlook
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