Mortgage Rate Lock-In Still Dominates
PR Newswire•22/10/2026•06:00 ET
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Key Highlights
- ➤42.8% of outstanding mortgages originated mid-2019 to mid-2022, a record share
- ➤27.8% of outstanding mortgages originated since mid-2022, as newer loans lose share
- ➤6%+ mortgage share could reach 27%–28.5% by mid-2027 if rates stay elevated
- ➤Mortgage rate lock-in is slowing housing-market turnover and delaying recovery expectations
- ➤Realtor.com is operated by News Corp subsidiary Move, Inc. (NWSA)
Expert Statements
Hannah Jones, Senior economist at Realtor.com
“A mortgage rate below 3% was an extraordinary exception, not a new normal. In data going back to 1971, rates fell below that mark only during the pandemic-era window and homeowners are still making decisions around those unusually low rates today. The rate unlock is real, but it's slow, as low-rate loans gradually age out, are traded up or paid off.”
Hannah Jones, Senior economist at Realtor.com
“Even in today's high-price, high-rate market, homebuying activity around major life events, such as having kids, a job change, or a divorce, keeps the market in motion. Easing inflation and lower mortgage rates should also bring more sellers off the sidelines, adding inventory which relieves price pressure and competition in today's under-supplied market. However, the recent surge in mortgage rates has pushed expectations of recovery further afield.”
Higher rates are slowing the release of pandemic-era low-rate mortgages and stretching the housing market's slow thaw
AUSTIN, Texas, Oct. 22, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Mortgage rate lock-in remains the dominant force in today's housing market as higher rates slow the gradual release of low-rate loans. In the second quarter, mortgages with rates of 5% or higher continued to grow, while recently originated loans continued to lose share, according to Realtor.com(®)'s Q2 2026 Outstanding Mortgage Data report .
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