Redfin Report: U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to "Normal" Within 5 Years
Key Highlights
- ➤U.S. housing costs could normalize within five years if rates reach 6% and price growth stays 2.1%
- ➤Housing costs could normalize within about six years if rates remain 7.5% and prices flatten
- ➤Costs could normalize by February 2029 if rates fall to 6% and prices decline 2%
- ➤San Jose housing costs could normalize in just over one year with 7.5% rates
- ➤At least a decade may be needed across half the analyzed metros, including New York and Chicago
Expert Statements
Asad Khan, Senior Economist at Redfin
“Many house hunters feel stuck between two bad options: Stretch themselves to buy at today's rates, or wait for lower rates only to see prices climb further out of reach,”
Asad Khan, Senior Economist at Redfin
“But prospective buyers shouldn't get hung up on timing the market. These hypothetical scenarios should give would-be buyers and sellers some hope that the market can normalize with only modest changes in rates or prices.”
Asad Khan, Senior Economist at Redfin
“For buyers and sellers, that means the best time to make a move is when it makes sense for your finances and your life.”
Asad Khan, Senior Economist at Redfin
“If you're a buyer who needs more time to save for a down payment, take more time. If you're a buyer who has the means to buy at current costs and you find your dream home, don't let today's rates stop you.”
Redfin Report: U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to "Normal" Within 5 Years PR Newswire
* The timeline varies widely depending on how rates and prices evolve—and it varies even more from metro to metro * Costs are closest to returning to normal in San Jose, Oakland, Seattle, Portland and Austin * Housing costs could take at least a decade to return to normal in half of the metros in Redfin's analysis SEATTLE, Oct. 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Housing costs could hypothetically return to "normal" within the next five years if mortgage rates drop to 6% and home-price growth holds steady around 2.1%. That's according to a new report from Redfin , the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket. Alternatively, housing costs could return to normal in just a slightly longer timeline—within about six years—if mortgage rates stay where they are today, about 7.5%, and home-price growth flattens.
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